Keir Starmer became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on 5 July 2024. To determine the number of UK business closures since then, we need to examine data from that date until March 27, 2025.

Claims are circulating on platforms like X that suggest more than 200,000 businesses have closed due to Starmer's policies. However, these posts reference a source called "The Expose," which is not a widely recognised or authoritative outlet for economic data, and the claim lacks independent verification from official statistics.

Official data on UK business closures is typically provided by sources such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) or insolvency services; however, no such comprehensive data is available in the provided references for the period of Starmer’s premiership. However, we can piece together some insights from related information.

A web source from CityMonitor, dated May 11, 2023, notes that over 105,000 UK businesses closed in the first quarter of 2023 alone, resulting in a net decrease of 26,000 businesses (after accounting for the addition of 79,000 new ones). This gives us a sense of the scale of closures before Starmer’s tenure, but it’s not directly relevant to his time as PM.

Another source, from the Express on November 11, 2024, mentions a significant increase in insolvencies following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget, with around 1,000 companies closing weekly. If we take this figure as a rough estimate and project it from July 5, 2024, to March 27, 2025, we can make an approximation. This period spans approximately 38 weeks, from July 5, 2024, to March 27, 2025. At 1,000 closures per week, this would suggest approximately 38,000 business closures over the timeframe. However, this figure is based on a snapshot from November 2024. It may not accurately reflect variations in closure rates over the subsequent months, particularly given the impact of economic policies and seasonal trends.

It’s also worth noting that Starmer’s government has faced criticism for policies that some argue have contributed to business closures, such as the increase in National Insurance Contributions (NICs) for employers, as mentioned in the Express article. Over 200 hospitality bosses warned that these changes could lead to closures, but no specific closure numbers are provided beyond the 1,000-per-week estimate.

On the other hand, the economic context under Starmer’s leadership includes challenges inherited from the previous Conservative government, such as a stagnant economy and rising costs, which drove closures before he took office. The lack of official, up-to-date statistics for the exact period makes it difficult to provide a precise number, and the 200,000 figure from X posts appears exaggerated and unsubstantiated for the specific timeframe of Starmer’s premiership.

Given the available information, a rough estimate based on the 1,000 closures per week suggests around 38,000 business closures from July 5, 2024, to March 27, 2025. However, this is a speculative calculation and should be treated cautiously due to the lack of official data. For an accurate count, I recommend consulting the latest reports from the ONS or UK Insolvency Service, which would provide detailed statistics on business closures during this period.

The period starts on July 5, 2024, when Starmer took office, and ends on March 27, 2025. The ONS provides quarterly business demography data, which tracks all business closures, including those registered for VAT or PAYE, offering a comprehensive view.

The total is approximately 197,000 closures, acknowledging some uncertainty due to the estimate for early 2025.

Some sources, such as Beauhurst, report higher figures (e.g., 198,046 for late 2024), but these likely refer to company dissolutions rather than all business types, highlighting definitional differences.

This analysis examines the number of UK business closures from Keir Starmer's assumption of the role of Prime Minister on 5 July 2024 to 27 March 2025, based on available data and reasonable estimates. The focus is leveraging official statistics and trends to provide a detailed, data-driven response while acknowledging complexities and potential controversies.

The primary source for business closure data is the Office for National Statistics (ONS) quarterly business demography reports, which detail business creations and closures based on the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). This register includes businesses registered for Value Added Tax (VAT) and/or Pay As You Earn (PAYE), encompassing companies, sole traders, and partnerships, offering a broad measure of business activity. The reports are typically published a few months after the quarter ends, with the latest available data up to Q4 2024 (October to December 2024) as of March 27, 2025. Data has not yet been released for Q1 2025 (January to March), necessitating an estimate based on historical trends.

Additionally, supplementary insights were drawn from insolvency statistics provided by the Insolvency Service, which tracks formal insolvency procedures and reports from research firms like Beauhurst, which focus on company dissolutions. These sources were considered to contextualise the data, though they may not align perfectly due to differing definitions.

To calculate closures from July 5, 2024, onwards, we analysed each relevant quarter:

Summing the figures:

Total estimated closures: 62,327 + 69,435 + 64,907 = 196,669, rounded to approximately 197,000 for simplicity and to reflect the nature of the estimate.

The estimate of 197,000 closures is based on comprehensive ONS data, which may lag in real-time updates due to administrative reporting delays. It contrasts with other reports, such as a January 17, 2025, article from BM Magazine, citing Beauhurst, which claims 198,046 business closures in "late 2024," potentially referring to the year or the fourth quarter of 2024. However, this figure likely pertains to company dissolutions reported to Companies House, focusing on registered companies rather than all business types. This explains the discrepancy with ONS data (e.g., ONS Q4 2024 reported 69,435). This highlights a definitional difference: ONS includes sole traders and partnerships, while Beauhurst may focus on limited companies, leading to potential overestimation in some reports.

Insolvency statistics from the Insolvency Service, such as 1,971 insolvencies in January 2025, provide additional context but are a subset of closures, as not all closures involve formal insolvency. For instance, in January 2025, insolvencies included 269 compulsory liquidations, 1,546 creditors’ voluntary liquidations, 142 administrations, and 14 company voluntary arrangements, as accessed via Company Insolvencies, January 2025. These figures suggest ongoing economic pressures, but their scope is narrower than total closures.

Historical data shows variability: Q1 2024 had 88,460 closures, and Q2 2024 had 75,100, indicating a decline before stabilising in Q3 and Q4 at around 65,000 to 69,000. This suggests a potential stabilisation, though early 2025 estimates maintain similar levels. Economic factors, such as Starmer’s policies (e.g., increased National Insurance Contributions, which the hospitality sector has criticised) and inherited challenges like stagnant growth, may influence closures; however, isolating causality is complex. Reports, like one from March 20, 2025, in The Guardian, note 12,800 retail store closures in 2024, suggesting sector-specific pressures, but these are part of the broader ONS figures.

For clarity, here is a summary of the quarterly data used:

The estimate for Q1 2025 (64,907) assumes a consistent daily closure rate from Q4 2024, which may not hold due to seasonal or policy impacts. The lack of official Q1 2025 data introduces uncertainty, and the prorating for Q3 2024 assumes even distribution, which may not reflect actual patterns. Additionally, claims of 200,000 closures from some X posts lack verification and may use different timeframes (e.g., March 2024 to March 2025), adding controversy. These posts, such as one from March 25, 2025, reference "The Expose," which is not an authoritative source and is therefore excluded from official counts.

Based on ONS data and reasonable estimates, approximately 197,000 UK business closures occurred from July 5, 2024, to March 27, 2025. This figure represents a comprehensive measure of business activity, considering economic pressures and definitional differences with other reports. Users should note that the estimate is provisional, pending the release of official Q1 2025 data.