On 27 Jun 2024, as President Joe Biden and his team prepared for a debate with Donald Trump in Atlanta, his wife reassured the Democratic Party's major donors at a political briefing. Dr. Biden exuded confidence, assuring the group, "Joe's fully prepared for this." This initial confidence set the stage for the subsequent disaster.

During the debate with Trump, Biden, who is 81 years old, struggled to articulate his arguments and often seemed confused. His allies agreed that his performance was disappointing. Biden hesitated frequently, stumbled over his prepared lines, and responded unclearly when asked about the national debt. "We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do—childcare, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our healthcare system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the—with, with, with the COVID. Excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with—look, if—we finally beat Medicare."

During the debate, the Democratic Party was deeply shaken. Some party members were not just shocked, but in disbelief, with one fundraiser exclaiming, "What the actual f*** is happening?" Another member felt the situation was dire for voters and the party. Democrats from different factions shared a sense of urgency, with some even considering if Biden should step down for the good of the party, the nation, and himself. This urgency underscored the intensity of the situation, making it clear that the party was facing a significant challenge.

Biden loyalists quickly stepped in to support him. Vice President Kamala Harris appeared on several late-night cable shows to try to calm party activists' concerns. Biden's team publicly stated that the night was just one of many and that the candidate was fully prepared for another four years. Their unwavering support was evident in their actions, sticking to their plan after the debate, taking Biden to a watch party at the Hyatt Regency in Atlanta for 45 minutes of photos, then making a quick visit to a Waffle House before heading to an Atlanta airfield for a flight to Raleigh, N.C., where he would campaign the next day. Air Force One landed just before 2 a.m. The following day, Barack Obama, the nation's most popular senior Democrat, told his allies to support Biden. "Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know," Biden's former boss messaged, providing a sense of comfort in the familiarity of the political process.

Many Americans who watched the debate saw that Biden has aged. In a close race with Trump, Biden seemed to have a difficult path to victory, which worried the Democrats. They wondered if there was any way to replace Biden on the ticket or if they would have to try to win with a flawed candidate. This was not what Biden and his team had planned during their six-day preparation at Camp David. Despite discussing a successful first-term agenda, Biden's team spent two days trying to reassure Democrats.

Biden has a history of blaming his staff when things go wrong. For example, when his first campaign failed in 1987, his aide David Wilhelm took the blame for passing along speeches that Biden used without permission. In another instance, when Biden's campaign finished poorly in Iowa, he removed his campaign manager, Greg Schultz, while on the way to a debate. Additionally, when questions arose about his son's business dealings and classified documents were found in his possession, Biden simply blamed his staff.

The blame for what happened in Atlanta can only be partly on the president and his close family members. It's not surprising, as voters have consistently expressed concerns about the ages of both candidates. According to Ipsos Polling, almost 66% of the nation thinks Trump and Biden are too old for the job. Another 25% believe Biden is too old. Separate polling from Gallup finds that only 22% of Americans are satisfied with the country's direction, putting Biden in a very precarious position. At a similar point in 2020, Trump's satisfaction rate was 20%, and he lost the election, while Obama remained in power with a 20% level of satisfaction in 2012. In 1992, when George H. W. Bush sought a second term, the satisfaction rate was 14%, and he lost in a three-way race.

Senior Democrats had warned that Biden wasn't at his best, and Obama insiders urged donors and operatives to consider new leadership. However, anyone concerned about Biden's age risked being cut off from his inner circle.

Following the debate, there were discussions about a potential uprising among confident Hill Democrats concerned about their chances of winning elections. They vowed to seek intervention from party leaders. However, it is tough to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee unless he decides to step down voluntarily.

Currently, Biden has the support of 3,894 out of approximately 4,000 pledged delegates, most of whom are required to vote for him in the first round of voting. This voting will take place before the Democratic National Convention. For another presidential candidate to be considered, the rules at the convention require at least 25% of the delegates vote to open up the chance for a new nominee. This means that a significant portion of the delegates must agree to consider a different candidate for the nomination. However, this scenario is still debatable.

“Things are dark. No doubt about it,” says one aid who has been in the West Wing since Day One. “But onward. That’s the only option that’s on the table.”

If Biden were convinced to step aside, chaos would erupt within the party, which hasn't been seen since 1968. However, Vice President Kamala Harris would have the advantage of already being in office, but her approval rating is meagre, making her vulnerable to a challenge. Among the potential candidates eyeing the 2028 election, there are quiet discussions about them possibly replacing Biden in 2024. These candidates include Governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gavin Newsom of California, and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois.

The Trump campaign is delighted with the status quo. "Democrats are stuck with Joe Biden whether they like it or not," says Alex Bruesewitz, a Trump-allied GOP consultant. That's true, and the Trump team was making the most of it in the wake of the debate. "Joe Biden forgot that 13 heroes died in Afghanistan and thinks there is an epidemic of sister-on-sister rape. He should not be anywhere near the nuclear briefcase. It's never been more clear that President Donald Trump's strength is needed back in the White House," Bruesewitz says.

To quiet the fears, Biden had to acknowledge the error. "Biden isn’t really a yard sign I want," a donor strategist said on Friday. The campaign doubled down on its resolve, circulating positive reviews from allies. They remain convinced that Trump is "An unlikely figure who won over no voters with his haphazard showing at the debate."

In the cold light of morning, campaign chief Jen O'Malley Dillon was dropped off at the Atlanta Ritz to reassure the donors. “The campaign leadership put it all in context, and supporters left feeling better than last night,” says Noah Mamet, a former Ambassador to Argentina. “Supporters were telling each other it could have been better, but no bed-wetting; it’s time to focus.” In the upper ranks of the Biden circle, there was no point adding gloss. "This election was never going to be won or lost in one rally, one conversation, or one debate," a senior adviser said. "We have a largely locked-in electorate and two well-defined candidates—and the voters who will decide this election are going to require consistent time and effort to win for November [2024]."

Biden went to work delivering that vision on Friday, 28 June 2024, in North Carolina, telling the crowd he understood the panic inside the party and then firmly rejecting it. “Folks, let me close with this: I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious.” Biden deadpanned in Raleigh as he acknowledged the error that donors were demanding, and strategists hoped he understood. “I don’t debate as well as I used to. I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. I know what millions of Americans know: when you get knocked down, you get back up.”

Biden has been knocked down plenty in his career, but sometimes it's best to stay on the canvas. “Folks, I give my word as a Biden: I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job,” he said.

For many Democrats who watched the debate, the problem is that what Biden personally believes is starting to look increasingly at odds with reality.

See Also: Trump's winning performance 27 June 2024