Operation Unthinkable: Churchill's 1945 Strategy
Published by Campbell M Gold in Historical · Sunday 09 Mar 2025 · 5:30
The New Russian Threat - 1945
Review this little known strategy of Churchill in 1945...
Introduction
In the aftermath of World War II, the geopolitical landscape was rapidly changing. Having emerged victorious over the Axis, the Allied powers now faced a new and formidable challenge: the Soviet Union. In this context, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill initiated a controversial military strategy known as Operation Unthinkable.
This plan aimed to prepare for a potential conflict with the USSR, reflecting the growing concerns about Soviet expansionism.
In May 1945, Churchill, who had recently lost the general election to Clement Attlee, was the Leader of the Opposition. Despite his defeat, Churchill remained influential in British politics, and his views carried significant weight in the post-war era. He was known for his staunch anti-communist stance and his determination to contain the spread of Soviet influence.
Background
The Context of 1945
By 1945, the world was witnessing the decline of Nazi Germany and the rise of the Soviet Union as a superpower. The wartime alliance between the Western Allies and the USSR began fraying as ideological differences and mutual suspicions surfaced. Churchill, who had long been wary of Soviet intentions, believed a proactive approach was necessary to counter potential threats.
Operation Unthinkable, as outlined in a memo written by Churchill, involved a three-stage plan to attack the Soviet Union.
- The First Stage would see a military incursion into Poland, followed by a rapid advance into the Soviet Union.
- The Second Stage would involve a full-scale invasion of the Soviet Union, utilising a coalition of British, American, and German forces.
- The Third Stage of Operation Unthinkable envisioned the Soviet Union's eventual defeat and the Allies' occupation of large swaths of Eastern Europe.
The plan was then to install a pro-Western government in the Soviet Union, which would serve as a bulwark against further communist expansion.
Churchill's strategy was based on two assumptions. First, he believed the Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse, weakened by the massive losses it had suffered during WWII. Second, he thought the Soviet Union's economy was on the brink of collapse, making it vulnerable to military occupation.
The Development of the Plan
In May 1945, shortly after Germany's defeat, Churchill ordered the British Chiefs of Staff to devise a plan for a surprise attack against the Soviet Union. This directive led to the formulation of Operation Unthinkable, which was intended to be a preemptive strike to prevent Soviet domination in Europe.
Objectives of Operation Unthinkable
The primary objectives of Operation Unthinkable included:
- Military Preparedness: To assess the feasibility of launching a military campaign against the Soviet forces stationed in Eastern Europe.
- Political Messaging: The goal was to send a clear signal to the USSR regarding the West's resolve to counter any aggressive moves.
- Preservation of Western Influence: To maintain Western influence in Europe and prevent the spread of communism.
The Plan's Components
Several key components characterised Operation Unthinkable:
- Surprise Attack: The plan called for a surprise military offensive to be launched on July 1, 1945. The British and American forces would deploy 47 divisions to engage Soviet troops.
- Use of Allied Forces: The strategy included the potential involvement of Nazi troops, which was highly controversial given the recent revelations about the Holocaust and the moral implications of collaborating with former enemies.
- Nuclear Considerations: There were discussions about the possible use of atomic weapons, reflecting the emerging nuclear capabilities of the United States.
In June 1945, Churchill's plan was presented to the British Chiefs of Staff Committee, which ultimately rejected it. The Committee cited several reasons for the plan's failure, including the risks, potential costs, and likely consequences for the Soviet Union.
Challenges and Controversies
Feasibility Concerns
As the plan was developed, significant concerns arose regarding its feasibility. The British military leaders doubted the likelihood of success against the well-entrenched Soviet forces. The logistical challenges of mobilising such many troops and resources were daunting.
Many within the British military and government met Operation Unthinkable with scepticism. The plan's costs were estimated to be enormous, and the risks involved in invading the Soviet Union were seen as extremely high. Additionally, the plan's timing was deemed inopportune, as it coincided with the emergence of the Cold War.
Ethical Implications
The ethical implications of collaborating with Nazi forces and the potential use of atomic weapons raised serious moral questions. Many within the British government and military were uncomfortable with the idea of aligning with former adversaries, especially in light of the atrocities committed during the war.
In the years following World War II, Operation Unthinkable has been the subject of intense debate among historians. Some have argued that Churchill's plan was a rational response to the perceived threat of Soviet expansion, while others have seen it as a misguided attempt to impose Western values on the Soviet Union.
It has even been suggested that Churchill needed another war to reestablish his power base and dictatorial governance.
The American reaction was divided on the matter. Some officials viewed the plan as Churchill's attempt to maintain his influence on post-war European policy. In contrast, others saw it as a futile and misguided attempt to counter Soviet influence.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Operation Unthinkable was never executed. The plan was shelved as the realities of the post-war world set in, and the focus shifted towards rebuilding Europe and establishing a framework for peace.
However, such a plan highlights the tensions of the era and the complexities of international relations in the immediate aftermath of World War II. Churchill's foresight regarding the Soviet threat would later manifest in the Cold War, shaping global politics for decades.
In retrospect, Operation Unthinkable is a fascinating case study of military strategy, political manoeuvring, and the ethical dilemmas leaders face in times of uncertainty.
Source
Churchill, W. (1945). Operation Unthinkable: A Memorandum by the Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister. (Available at the Churchill Archives Centre)
Hamilton, A. (2010). Winston Churchill's Operation Unthinkable: A Study of the UK Government's 1945 Plan for a War with the Soviet Union. (Available online)
Taylor, P. (1992). Churchill: The Unbending Amateur. (Available online)
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