Despite all the concerns surrounding human emissions, fossil fuel emissions have a minimal impact on atmospheric CO2 levels, especially in comparison to natural factors such as natural fluctuations in sea surface temperatures.

A new study published in the Science of Climate Change challenges the long-held belief that human emissions cause rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations.

It argues that sea surface temperatures (SST) play a much more significant role than human-caused factors in determining yearly changes in atmospheric CO2 levels. This study questions every climate change agenda proposed by global governments and institutions.

Using multivariate analysis and publicly available data from leading climate and energy organisations, Dao Ato's study compares the impacts of sea surface temperature and human emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The analysis covered the period from 1959 to 2022 and utilised multiple linear regression techniques to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature and human CO2 emissions on the yearly increase in atmospheric CO2.

The results reveal that sea surface temperature data, obtained from NASA and the UK-HADLEY Centre datasets, was the most accurate predictor of CO2 concentrations. The regression model incorporating sea surface temperature explained approximately 66% of the variance in annual CO2 increases after 1959, with a remarkably high correlation between predicted and actual CO2 levels.

The study found a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.9995 between the CO2 concentrations predicted using sea surface temperature data from the UK-HADLEY Centre and actual measurements from NOAA, with a minimal prediction error of 1.45 ppm in 2022. In contrast, human CO2 emissions showed no significant correlation with yearly changes in atmospheric CO2.

Ato’s study also found that despite rising dramatically in recent decades, human methane emissions have not contributed to rising through the 21st century.

Sea surface temperature data from NASA's GISS and the UK-HADLEY Centre similarly demonstrated strong correlations with atmospheric CO2 levels, surpassing the much smaller, insignificant correlations between human emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels. The study also challenges the accuracy of historical CO2 records, noting discrepancies between ice core data and modern measurements.

Multiple linear regression models revealed that sea surface temperature was a statistically significant explanatory factor for yearly CO2 increases, while human emissions were not. Depending on the dataset used, sea surface temperature accounted for 57% to 66% of the variance in CO2 levels.

The study’s findings suggest that natural variations in sea surface temperature, rather than human activities, are the dominant factor influencing fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. This study challenges the prevailing narrative that human emissions are the primary driver of climate change and should call into question all global government narratives surrounding the climate change agenda.

This study builds upon previous research in 2013 by Wang et al., which assessed CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and land use changes.

The study found that these manufactured activities only account for +0.1 to 0.3 PgC/yr of the yearly change in CO2 concentration, which is approximately only one-tenth of the variance of oxygen on the CO2 growth rate. In a 2005 study, researchers found that changes in atmospheric CO2 levels were not associated with annual fossil fuel emissions and were unlikely to explain CO2 growth rate anomalies.

Moreover, a 2009 study by Dr. Jari Ahlbeck evaluated the correlation between fossil fuel emissions and the increase in CO2 growth rates but found the correlation to be "clearly statistically insignificant." Fossil fuel emissions had such a minimal impact on atmospheric CO2 that he ultimately excluded it from consideration in his analysis of the mechanisms of CO2 variability.

In other words, artificial activities have a minimal impact on the planet. Most of Earth's temperature and weather changes are natural, and the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is out of our control.

It should not be the concern of any global government or activist organisation.

04 Sep 2024

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